Did you know that the price of wheat is the price of wheat all around the planet? Yup, it’s the same. We can include Corn, Soybeans, Rice and most other staple foodstuffs in that category as well. When did that happen? Sometime in the 1970’s it actually became official, but it’s been going on for a very long time.
So what does that mean? Well, considering that over a billion humans on the planet don’t get enough to eat every day, it means something is coming. What exactly that is no one can say. It’s not planned in the traditional sense, more ridden like a surfer rides a wave. An almost invisible force that’s currently impossible to completely fathom. But I can relate that countries that are not self-sufficient in food, like Saudi Arabia and many others, are very busy buying up land in other countries for food production. Because they need to and they sense the wave.
When we think about it for a minute we know that there are almost 7 billion people on the planet, all of whom would rather eat every day. In addition, most of those billions (I’m assuming here) would like everyone else to eat everyday as well. Oh, we’d all like power for lights and appliances and fuel for our cars but food is something altogether different. We need food, to live. It’s not a luxury, which is what berthed the phrase “No matter where you are, every country is only three meals from a riot.”
I believe we are all witnessing the greatest organizing force ever to hit the earth. In the past if the inhabitants of one town, village or country couldn’t get enough food, people with food could either contribute or ignore them. However, since the first world war there have been International efforts to feed the hungry, substantial efforts. If Russia or China began to run out of food would we turn our backs? Doubtful, not only do they possess nuclear weapons but also the world is increasingly run by the opinions of lesser and lesser giants. The Common man has more to say about what their country does than ever before in history. It’s an inter-connected world now, hence the price of food has gone international and if a region starves we all hear about it, and do something about it.
To turn away from a starving country would be a very dangerous move for any nation. We have become interdependent as a world and any overt action to ignore or cause hunger could have horrendous implications. The US is a net food exporter for some staple items, but a net importer for lots more. For example not one commercially available banana is grown on US soil. We have a lot to lose in a “food conflict,” everyone does. Which I believe will become a very powerful organizing force, it’s already produced co-operative food pricing. Do we doubt this process will progress? The need for food is the great equalizer, no matter how fancy your weapons, run out of food and it soon will be “game over.” Governments that can’t provide it will soon disappear, countries that fight for it will become everyone’s target.
Last year Russian and Eastern European crops suffered under a severe drought, this year it was our turn. Increased climate pressure makes that a likely possibility for a good time to come. That means organizing water supplies and fresh water is another commodity that is critical. Everybody needs to drink and we need water to grow food. Every critical resource under threat creates a pressure wave to organize distribution. More and more critical resources are organized to be able to be distributed worldwide. That’s just how it is.
As a quick aside we might be tempted to wonder if “free market” economies will be able to charge whatever the market will bear for critical resources. That’s a good question. My answer is yes, they will, until they can’t anymore. Customers will stand a good gouging only so long, then they will band together and set the price themselves. It’s a free market after all, and free markets work both ways. An enterprise can only stand off it’s customers so long, before they take what they need. Sooner or later, it won’t be about profit anymore it will be about need.
But what about population control? That would fix everything. Yup, sure would. As soon as someone finds a way to explain to their husband or wife that they can’t have anymore children because some people like to eat steak, let me know. The Chinese are giving it a shot, of course they had to reach over a billion before it was even feasible. I think that’s coming, but slowly. I find it hard to imagine telling an American they can’t have 9 children, I think other countries feel the same way.
It also may interest some to know what the number one crop in the world is these days. It’s Soybeans, used as animal feed. No one has done much with soybean yields over time, unless that changes meats are going to get more expensive and harder to find. Not tomorrow, not next year but soon, all too soon. Being a vegetarian may seem abhorrent to some, but it’s far more efficient in terms of production and consumption. Ever wonder what a cow eats to make all those wonderful steaks and chops? It’s worth looking up. The first thing to notice is that probably means that soon steaks and the like will be the same price all over the world as well. Free market 101, which also means there will soon be less soybeans for cows because hungry people pay more than ranchers. Which means less cows, chickens, sheep(lambs)………
Get the picture? Oh some enterprising fellows will start out making big money on meats and other less critical things, until people need the grains, soybeans and water to stay alive. Then wiser heads will prevail, and already have. It will probably go like that for most critical commodities. Were you hoping to skip the whole world order thing? Next time…..maybe. But probably not, the Earth like any collective organism will find it’s own level of efficiency and then continue on. Unless I miss my guess, that won’t include fighting each other for resources for very long. It’s much too wasteful and resource intensive. Humans are the ultimate survivor race from a planet of survivors, sooner or later we’ll figure it out and get used to it. We all adapt.
Copyright Prentiss Gray 2012
Prentiss Gray is a writer and columnist and currently writes the Domesti-Tech Blog for Gannett. He can be reached through his website at GrayResearch.net
Prentiss Gray
Prentiss Gray is a writer/columnist/blogger from New Jersey. After 27 years as a Information Systems consultant and the death of his wife of 21 years, he returned to his roots as a writer, creating the national column Adventures of the Lone Dad/ Daddy chronicles. He now Blogs for Gannet on domestic technology, and writes feature pieces and stories for general publication. He is a member of the American Society of Journalists and Authors and contributes to Bloomberg News, Daily Record, Gannett and the Tribune Syndicate.
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Stimulating article, Prentiss. Not to nitpick, but contrary to your statement that “not one commercially available banana is grown on US soil,” bananas are commercially grown throughout Hawaii. This is an excusable oversight, as many mainlanders tend to overlook the fact that Hawaii is a state…or at least they did some 30 years ago when I landed there and most of my fellow tourists seemed to regard it as a foreign land.
Regarding the question of Russia and China as examples of nuclear armed countries we might or might not turn our backs on if they’re running out of food, I believe this question haa already been addressed with North Korea. The help didn’t seem to change anything, but maybe that’s beside the point?
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Oh good grief, you’re absolutely right. 5% of imported bananas do come from Hawaii. My bad.
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And if we add in the % “imported” from Alaska, we might be talking big bananas!
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I’m not sure what your central point is in this article. Will people go to war for it – very unlikely. The human species is very adaptive in dealing with famine, even in Africa, where they are less so. So the bit “three meals from a riot” leaves me a bit confused. Soy is far more than animal food. It yields the highest protein per acre of any plant. It is used far more in various human food products as oil, a supplement in everything from baby food to health products. Processed foods of numerous kind use soy, people just don’t know they are eating it without looking at the ingredients.
The population control issue is a grave issue facing the world in general. In the USA fertility rates have been dropping for several years and Latinos and blacks have higher fertility rates than caucasians. In Europe, indigenous fertility rates are insufficient to outpace those of migrating Muslims, and are hence considered to be terminal
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Actually the use of soy in oils, sauces and various food products only accounts for about 10% according to the sources I’ve been looking at, 90% is used for cattle fodder, chicken feed, etc.
I think my point is very much the one you pointed out, we probably wont go to war over food. What will probably happen is that we’ll come up with a better, fairer, more stable system of production and distribution. Then again, no one knows.
On population control, it will take a while and by that time people may not care as much about superficial “racial” categories. I certainly hope so.
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Farmers are very good at what they do as are cattlemen and all others in the ag industry. Take away the slim profit margins they are enjoying and you will see food shortages.
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Interesting article. There is difference between wholesale commodity costs, which is separate from the cost of product delivered to the end-user, and retail. There is a substantial transportation component to price which would make it unlikely for the stabilization of many commodities. The cost of energy makes a significant impact on the actual cost involved.
And we could fit all of humanity into the southern US, if it were rich enough in resources to accomodate it, which rightly leads to the battle over resources. It isn’t land area, but food, fuel, water and basic human needs. The markets do set price based on availability currently. The prospect of the grocery stores being empty is frightening due to the disconnect many have between the hierarchy of needs versus where things come from. Many would be little able to be responsible for their own care and feeding, and would have to resort to violence or chicanery to get by.
Bananas/plantains grow on Puerto Rico also; though may someday go extinct due to overmanipulation as much as anything.
Interesting subject!
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We also have a banana plantation in Malibu, not big enough to have any real impact on banana prices.
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Sorry, but this was too long for me to read because of my one bad eye. It probably was good and I couldn’t read that much writing.
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