The beginning of yet another 90 degree day.
Just about anyone not living in a cave, or clutching hopefully to the “It’s just weather” line could write about the serious changes we’re seeing because of global warming. In the last two weeks I had some weird or possibly serendipitous events that brought the subject to the forefront of my attention. It made it very clear that I myself am on the front lines, stuck in the same boat with everyone else.
I spent a couple of weeks in Machias ME, that’s in the far northeastern corner of the continental US, and sweated through several days of 90 degree heat and 90% humidity. Surprising for a place that used to have ice form on the edges of the lake on some summer mornings. Machias, home of the first US naval battle, benefits from it’s proximity to the ocean. That body of water smooths out temperature extremes making Machias a temperate place, albeit cooler than most.
To escape that we went to St John in New Brunswick, going further north and farther east. It was nice, especially when listening to what was going on back in New York city and Morristown NJ. The murderous heat kept our three sons in the basement running up the electric bill. However, while listening to the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) we heard a story about the current state of Canadian crops. Apparently Global warming is not bad for everyone.
It seems that the wheat fields of Alberta and Saskatchewan, which are vast by the way, will be delivering a huge surplus this year. Farmers commented that because of the drought on the American side of the border the price of wheat is expected to rise and they should make out very well this year. The normally shorter growing season has changed, growing longer and stronger much to the benefit of Canadian farmers.
That report got me thinking about the movement of our nation’s “bread basket” right out of the country. The temperate zone necessary for crops like wheat and corn is shifting northward, or rather has shifted. A few days later I came across an article by two NASA scientists which concerned the difficulty of convincing the public of the reality and effects of Global warming/Climate change.
They postulate that because people normally only think about the last 10 years when doing weather comparisons, it’s difficult for most people to understand the changes that are taking place. That itself may change as the the rapidity of climate change is accelerating, far beyond what climatologists predicted. Although recent polls reveal that more than 70% of Americans aren’t buying the “Climate change is a conspiracy” line anymore.
As much as we hear comparisons of present times to earlier climate events, there really has never been a change like this since our original evolution. That little tidbit came up in a paper by a couple of Stanford researchers. We and most of the species we know all evolved under particular climatic circumstances. We essentially evolved bodies to suit the Earth and it’s weather during a time that is fading.
That may not be a huge problem for us, we’re smart, we have resources. The problem we be for all the other creatures and plant life who can’t turn on an air conditioner or go for a swim on a hot day. Evolution takes a long, long time so we can expect to loose almost 60% of the current species (except the bugs, damn it) if the pace of the change continues.
Not tomorrow 0f course, but in 20 to 50 years fish, fowl and everything in between will be stressed to the point where the least adaptable will start to die off. That includes plant life by the way. Cactus for breakfast, again?
Coincidentally, I then noticed a piece by Richard Muller, physicist and noted climate change skeptic (he is best know for vigorously challenging the “Hockey stick” graph), saying after a three year effort with the Berkley Earth surfaces temperature project he has now confirmed that the IPCC was correct about the pace of change and the extent of climate change. He went a little farther, he said it is our fault. Not magic, not the result of mystical solar influence, or even “Just one of those things we go through from time to time,” nope, we did it.
“Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases.”
He goes on to say the the IPCC was wrong to attribute some of the changes to solar influences or “natural occurrences,” The best fit for the data is industrialization and fossil fuel use. Everyone will be thrilled that skeptics have begun to pull apart the study and remain generally unconvinced.
The last event to ensnare me on this line of thinking was seeing the new name of of the Epoch we are beginning. Remember the Pleistocene? It ended 75,000 years ago (that’s when we evolved to our current state). Then came the Holocene, when we rose (after almost becoming extinct from a multi-year freeze due to a volcanic event) to take over the planet. According to current thinking we are just starting a new epoch, the Anthropocene. Named for us, because we now cause most of what happens in Earth’s environment.
I haven’t figured out if that’s cool yet.
Copyright Prentiss Gray 2012
Prentiss Gray is a writer and columnist and currently writes the Domesti-Tech Blog for Gannett. He can be reached through his website at www.prentissgray.com
Prentiss Gray
Prentiss Gray is a writer/columnist/blogger from New Jersey. After 27 years as a Information Systems consultant and the death of his wife of 21 years, he returned to his roots as a writer, creating the national column Adventures of the Lone Dad/ Daddy chronicles. He now Blogs for Gannet on domestic technology, and writes feature pieces and stories for general publication. He is a member of the American Society of Journalists and Authors and contributes to Bloomberg News, Daily Record, Gannett and the Tribune Syndicate.
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Welcome back, Prentiss – it’s good to see you posting again. I have no expertise in the climate change dept., but I’ll take your word that “we’re smart” enough (politicans included?) to deal with it. It’s going to seem strange, though, when and if “amber waves of grain” become more associated with Canada than with America The Beautiful.
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Prentiss, I don’t think a lot of skeptics are denying man made global warming as much as they are doubting the amount of blame being placed on CO2 gases. Their are amny many factors, not to exclude the damming of rivers all over the world and using the water for irrigation. Anything changing the dynamics of ocean currents can have dramatic efects on climate. I most assuredly feel we need to accurately determine what changes are taking place and why. Too easy to place the blame on one bad boy when the whole class is acting up.
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Remember the song by the Byrds back in the 60′s, “Turn! Turn! Turn!”? The song is actually the Bible scripture of Ecclesiastes 3:1 to 15 or maybe 20 anyway, that what your post brought to mind. “To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven…,” even, “Amber waves of grain..”
Welcome back Prentiss.
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Thanks guys sorry to be away so long,
You’re right Steve, we need to know as much as possible about the causes and effects. Time will tell if Dr. Muller is right, and the confusionists are still hard at work blaming everything under the sun. The most disappointing part is that Muller chose to announce his views in a NY Times op-Ed piece rather than wait untill all the study’s work was finished the peer review process. In the last six months since the works release no one has had much to say against the process and conclusions of the study though. He’s a bit of a hothead but it starting to look like he does good work.
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I don’t know enough about this subject to offer a comment one way or the other. I’m just logging in to say welcome back and well written as always.
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In the last billion years, the climate has varied from glaciations to tropical and then back. The cycle operates at about a 140 million year cycle. The ratios of Oxygen 16 to O18 are higher or lower in relation to temperature variation. Evidence of these cycles in isotope ratios had been found in ice cores and geology, and is shown with regularity. It is colder than it was 1,000 years ago…
Do humans have an impact on the Earth, sure, and so does everything else. I just can’t get excited by the problem. I don’t see one to solve. Should we quit polluting willy-nilly? Absolutely! But do we need the UN, government commissions and more bureaucrats? Definitely not!
You reference ten years versus 250; I say why not look at 1000 years? It is colder than it was 1,000 years ago…
But I do appreciate your well-thought and well-written article. Welcome Back!!
And Kaye, I agree. Everything has a season in the big scheme of things…
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I don’t think it was “colder 1000 years ago”, certainly not in the aggregate. That’s what global climate change is about, the aggregate change and it’s effect on the environment. It’s a problem that requires leadership that’s what governments and organizations like the UN were created for, that’s their job. Sometimes I think a lot of us forget that governments are supposed to work for us, not against us. Nobody likes being told to do something that is hard, expensive or inconvenient but if an authority doesn’t take responsibility and make people do things, they won’t. That’s why we need police.
In this case there is not much we can do, not without extensive changes to the way we live. Michael, you’re from Texas right? How would you get around with out a car? Public transportation just isn’t an option even a little ways from a city. You might try an electric vehicle, but is there one with the range you require? If I remember right driving across Texas is more of a career than a trip. How many days and nights would that be if it took all night to charge your car? That’s what most people think about when considering changing something as simple as what they drive. It could make a huge impact, but unless people are enticed or forced they wont do anything. It’s just our nature, and we know it.
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Ps. thanks it’s nice to be back.
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I am not a scientist but I have read a few articles about the”global warming crisis.” I think these weather patterns are just part of the Earth’s evolution. Met an ancient farmer who was waiting for a prescription at the local drug store.The white hairs on his arm were saluting me from the deeply tanned and wrinkled skin. I asked him politely what he thought of this “global warming” theory. He said from under his battered straw hat. My grandfather and his before him always told us that the earth is just going through its cycles of good harvests and poor ones. Nonchalantly,he replied that his forefathers had lived through these weather cycles and survived. He did not believe in global warming at all. Common sense from one who had lived through the ups and downs of farming the land.
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Current scientific consensus says this is more than a normal change. Even if the changes taking place are “normal” it doesn’t mean they won’t be horrendous. The next 5 to 10 years will tell the tale. Really not looking forward to hurricane season, and we just had a whole house generator installed.
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